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| Alabama State Discussion: |
000
FXUS64 KBMX 090023 AAA
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
723 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.UPDATE...EVENING FORECAST AND AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE FOR MINOR POP UPDATES FOR SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH
A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES. THESE SHOULD DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
08/MNK
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 309 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010/
SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS
LEAKED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA SINCE LAST NIGHT. THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AROUND TO HELP FIRE UP SHOWERS...BUT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF
ANY DYNAMICAL SUPPORT...AND A WEAK CAP OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CWA...THUNDER HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED. PW VALUES TODAY ARE ONLY
RUNNING AROUND 1.50 INCHES...SO HONESTLY...THERE REALLY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ANY THREAT WITH TODAY`S ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD DIE
OFF QUICKLY AS THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIP A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH BEFORE IT
WASHES OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH REALLY NO FURTHER ADO. WHAT IS
LEFT OF TS HERMINE SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER US...DRENCHING PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS...AND LEAVING US DRY.
WE CAN THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE WEEKEND...AS MODELS ARE PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING
ITS WAY TOWARDS US FOR THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME. NOT REALLY
ALL THAT CONCERNED WITH STRENGTH AS THE PARENT LOW THAT THIS FRONT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IS GOING TO BE OVER HUDSON BAY IN CANADA...WAY UP
THERE. THIS MEANS LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HERE IN
ALABAMA...BUT WITH 2 DAYS OF WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY`S ARRIVAL...WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT FOR EVERYONE. THE BOUNDARY...AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO WILL ONLY SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOPING TO
SEE DRY CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WARM...BUT LOOK FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
27
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ONLY CONCERN AVIATION-WISE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG AT ANB AND TCL
BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
AROUND 5-7 KNOTS TOMORROW...WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...VARYING
FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.
NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE CEILOMETER
DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR
ACCURACY.
12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 67 90 63 91 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 68 91 65 92 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 73 91 69 92 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 69 95 68 95 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 70 92 68 93 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 71 93 68 90 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 70 95 69 95 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
TROY 68 95 68 94 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08/27/12
000
FXUS64 KHUN 082343 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
641 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE AT KHSV/KMSL TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REGIONAL RADARS DO SHOW SOME HEAVY
SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY TO OUR S-SW...OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MISS AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. BUT...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA. A MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS SEEN IN
RADAR IMAGERY MOVING TOWARDS KMSL...AND THIS ALONG WITH MOIST UPR
FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME -SHRA IN THE VICINITY AROUND
03-06Z. OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT MOST SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010/
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SLOWLY SWD TO JUST S OF THE
TN RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY AND RELATED CONVERGENCE HAS AIDED CLUSTERS
OF -SHRA ALL DAY LONG...MAINLY N OF THE TN RIVER. THE ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN ELEVATED IN NATURE WITH CIGS MAINLY AOA 040AGL. SUNSHINE S OF
THE BOUNDARY AND CLOUD CANOPY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND WAS PRODUCING NEW SHRA/TSRA DVLPMT DURING THE PAST 1-2
HOURS. SB LI`S HAVE DIPPED TO -4 TO -6 IN THIS AREA...BUT MAINLY S
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE LINGERING
SPRINKLES/-RA EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT OTRW...XPCT MAIN PRECIP
AREA TO REMAIN TO OUR S. GIVEN RATHER MOIST AIRMASS AND DEW POINTS
IN THE M-U60S...THERE IS SOME RISK OF FG DVLPMT OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...CLOUD CANOPY REMAINS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMAINS OF HERMINE IS BEING SHEARED EWD
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. THUS HAVE FCST A LITTLE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MIN TEMPS.
ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH POPS ARE CERTAINLY NON-ZERO...WL LEAVE
PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMAINS OF HERMINE SHIFTS NEWD THRU THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY NOW SHIFTING TO OUR S WILL BE
PULLED NWD AS HERMINE`S REMAINS TRACK NEWD. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NW...SO
OPTING FOR A DRY FCST FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING WILL BOTH
CONTRIBUTE TO HOTTER WX ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 90S.
WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT SEWD...SATURDAY IS
LOOKING HOT AS WELL...AND HAVE BUMPED HIGHS UP ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
MAINTAINED SHRA/TSRA CHC AS THE 7H SHORT WAVE ARRIVES SAT AFTN.
THERE ACTUALLY MAY BE TWO WAVES OF POTENTIAL TSRA...WITH THE SECOND
ARRIVING SAT EVENING WITH THE CD FRONT. FORTUNATELY...BULK 6KM SHEAR
OF AROUND 20-25KT SUGGESTS A LIMITED SVR THREAT AT THIS POINT.
FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FCST. I HAVE BUMPED
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...A TREND IN THE RUN TO RUN ENSEMBLE MEAN
MOS VALUES. A DRY NW FLOW PATTERN WL BE UPON US WHICH WL CUT OF
THE GULF FOR THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...KDW
DISCUSSION...KULA
000
FXUS64 KMOB 082102
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
402 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...WEAK TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES...PRIMARILY IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT A SECONDARY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA AT THAT TIME...GENERALLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES HERE. ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT A SECONDARY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AT THAT TIME...GENERALLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE GULF DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS EARLY IN LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT OVERNIGHT MINS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL (INTO THE MID
60S IN SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS) BY WEDNESDAY. 12/DS
&&
.AVIATION (08/18Z 09/00Z TAF ISSUANCES)...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE SOMME PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN THE USUAL PLACES...SUCH AS 4R4...CEW AND
IN THE RIVER BOTTOMS. AFTER SOME BRIEF MVFR THURSDAY MORNING OVER
SOME OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
11/DF
&&
.MARINE...AS THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE PUSH NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP DOWN THE EAST COAST AND ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH AND LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS INTO THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT LIGHT NORTHEAST NEAR SHORE
AT NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE
IN THE WEEKEND...SENDING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH NEAR SHORE BY
SUNDAY. SEAS MOSTLY 2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY MORNING AND AFTERNOONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 11/DF
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES OF 35 TO 45 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED
OVER INTERIOR ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES OF 45-55
PERCENT EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BE LIGHT...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR AVERAGE TO GOOD DAYTIME
DISPERSIONS. 12/DS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 71 92 72 91 / 10 10 10 20
PENSACOLA 74 93 75 91 / 10 10 10 20
DESTIN 76 90 77 87 / 10 10 10 20
EVERGREEN 67 95 68 96 / 10 10 05 10
WAYNESBORO 66 93 68 94 / 10 10 05 10
CAMDEN 67 96 67 95 / 10 10 05 10
CRESTVIEW 65 96 69 94 / 10 10 05 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 082009
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
309 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS
LEAKED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA SINCE LAST NIGHT. THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AROUND TO HELP FIRE UP SHOWERS...BUT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF
ANY DYNAMICAL SUPPORT...AND A WEAK CAP OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CWA...THUNDER HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED. PW VALUES TODAY ARE ONLY
RUNNING AROUND 1.50 INCHES...SO HONESTLY...THERE REALLY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ANY THREAT WITH TODAY`S ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD DIE
OFF QUICKLY AS THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIP A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH BEFORE IT
WASHES OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH REALLY NO FURTHER ADO. WHAT IS
LEFT OF TS HERMINE SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER US...DRENCHING PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS...AND LEAVING US DRY.
WE CAN THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE WEEKEND...AS MODELS ARE PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING
ITS WAY TOWARDS US FOR THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME. NOT REALLY
ALL THAT CONCERNED WITH STRENGTH AS THE PARENT LOW THAT THIS FRONT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH IS GOING TO BE OVER HUDSON BAY IN CANADA...WAY UP
THERE. THIS MEANS LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HERE IN
ALABAMA...BUT WITH 2 DAYS OF WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY`S ARRIVAL...WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT FOR EVERYONE. THE BOUNDARY...AT THIS
POINT...LOOKS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO WILL ONLY SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOPING TO
SEE DRY CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WARM...BUT LOOK FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
27
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SCT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS N AL OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL AL LATER
TODAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20
CORRIDOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND/OR OLD
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE CB WORDING IN FOR THE
FOUR NORTHERN SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF RA OR TS
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. MGM AND TOI REMAIN IN A DRIER
AIR MASS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH ONLY A FEW CU
EXPECTED THAT FAR SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-7 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH NW WINDS IN THE NORTH AND MORE OF A SW WIND IN THE SOUTH.
NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND
WX) AMENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE
CEILOMETER DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED
FOR ACCURACY.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 67 90 63 91 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 68 91 65 92 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 73 91 69 92 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 69 95 68 95 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 70 92 68 93 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 71 93 68 90 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 70 95 69 95 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
TROY 68 95 68 94 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
27/19
000
FXUS64 KHUN 081935 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
235 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SLOWLY SWD TO JUST S OF THE TN
RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY AND RELATED CONVERGENCE HAS AIDED CLUSTERS OF
-SHRA ALL DAY LONG...MAINLY N OF THE TN RIVER. THE ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN ELEVATED IN NATURE WITH CIGS MAINLY AOA 040AGL. SUNSHINE S OF
THE BOUNDARY AND CLOUD CANOPY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND WAS PRODUCING NEW SHRA/TSRA DVLPMT DURING THE PAST 1-2
HOURS. SB LI`S HAVE DIPPED TO -4 TO -6 IN THIS AREA...BUT MAINLY S
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE LINGERING SPRINKLES/-RA
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT OTRW...XPCT MAIN PRECIP AREA TO REMAIN TO
OUR S. GIVEN RATHER MOIST AIRMASS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
M-U60S...THERE IS SOME RISK OF FG DVLPMT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUD
CANOPY REMAINS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMAINS OF HERMINE IS BEING SHEARED EWD THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. THUS HAVE FCST A LITTLE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS.
ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH POPS ARE CERTAINLY NON-ZERO...WL LEAVE
PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMAINS OF HERMINE SHIFTS NEWD THRU THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY NOW SHIFTING TO OUR S WILL BE
PULLED NWD AS HERMINE`S REMAINS TRACK NEWD. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NW...SO
OPTING FOR A DRY FCST FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING WILL BOTH
CONTRIBUTE TO HOTTER WX ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 90S.
WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT SEWD...SATURDAY IS
LOOKING HOT AS WELL...AND HAVE BUMPED HIGHS UP ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
MAINTAINED SHRA/TSRA CHC AS THE 7H SHORT WAVE ARRIVES SAT AFTN.
THERE ACTUALLY MAY BE TWO WAVES OF POTENTIAL TSRA...WITH THE SECOND
ARRIVING SAT EVENING WITH THE CD FRONT. FORTUNATELY...BULK 6KM SHEAR
OF AROUND 20-25KT SUGGESTS A LIMITED SVR THREAT AT THIS POINT.
FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FCST. I HAVE BUMPED
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...A TREND IN THE RUN TO RUN ENSEMBLE MEAN
MOS VALUES. A DRY NW FLOW PATTERN WL BE UPON US WHICH WL CUT OF
THE GULF FOR THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS N AL WHICH COULD
BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO MVFR UNTIL 00Z. FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY BTWN
11-14Z AT KMSL WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 66 87 66 95 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
SHOALS 66 88 64 97 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
VINEMONT 66 86 67 94 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 65 82 61 91 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 66 87 64 92 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
FORT PAYNE 64 85 61 96 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KULA
AVIATION...SL.77
000
FXUS64 KHUN 081902
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
202 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SLOWLY SWD TO JUST S OF THE TN
RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY AND RELATED CONVERGENCE HAS AIDED CLUSTERS OF
-SHRA ALL DAY LONG...MAINLY N OF THE TN RIVER. THE ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN ELEVATED IN NATURE WITH CIGS MAINLY AOA 040AGL. SUNSHINE S OF
THE BOUNDARY AND CLOUD CANOPY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND WAS PRODUCING NEW SHRA/TSRA DVLPMT DURING THE PAST 1-2
HOURS. SB LI`S HAVE DIPPED TO -4 TO -6 IN THIS AREA...BUT MAINLY S
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE LINGERING SPRINKLES/-RA
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT OTRW...XPCT MAIN PRECIP AREA TO REMAIN TO
OUR S. GIVEN RATHER MOIST AIRMASS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
M-U60S...THERE IS SOME RISK OF FG DVLPMT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUD
CANOPY REMAINS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE REMAINS OF HERMINE IS BEING SHEARED EWD THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. THUS HAVE FCST A LITTLE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS.
ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH POPS ARE CERTAINLY NON-ZERO...WL LEAVE
PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMAINS OF HERMINE SHIFTS NEWD THRU THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY NOW SHIFTING TO OUR S WILL BE
PULLED NWD AS HERMINE`S REMAINS TRACK NEWD. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NW...SO
OPTING FOR A DRY FCST FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING WILL BOTH
CONTRIBUTE TO HOTTER WX ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 90S.
WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT SEWD...SATURDAY IS
LOOKING HOT AS WELL...AND HAVE BUMPED HIGHS UP ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
MAINTAINED SHRA/TSRA CHC AS THE 7H SHORT WAVE ARRIVES SAT AFTN.
THERE ACTUALLY MAY BE TWO WAVES OF POTENTIAL TSRA...WITH THE SECOND
ARRIVING SAT EVENING WITH THE CD FRONT. FORTUNATELY...BULK 6KM SHEAR
OF AROUND 20-25KT SUGGESTS A LIMITED SVR THREAT AT THIS POINT.
FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FCST. I HAVE BUMPED
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...A TREND IN THE RUN TO RUN ENSEMBLE MEAN
MOS VALUES. A DRY NW FLOW PATTERN WL BE UPON US WHICH WL CUT OF
THE GULF FOR THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 66 87 66 95 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
SHOALS 66 88 64 97 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
VINEMONT 66 86 67 94 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 65 82 61 91 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 66 87 64 92 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
FORT PAYNE 64 85 61 96 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
KULA
000
FXUS64 KMOB 081744 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1240 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 08/18Z...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
TO BE VFR WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA. MIGHT BE A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SOMME
PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN THE USUAL
PLACES...SUCH AS 4R4...CEW AND IN THE RIVER BOTTOMS. AFTER SOME
BRIEF MVFR THURSDAY MORNING OVER SOME OF THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. /11
****************************PREVIOUS******************
.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...KEEPING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE WELL TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA AGAIN
TODAY...WITH PRECIP WATERS HOVERING NEAR AN INCH OVER THE INTERIOR
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEABREEZE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE OVERALL
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOW
90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A WEAK FRONT
OVER THE TN VALLEY TRIES TO PUSH SOUTH...BUT THE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP
THE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. LOWS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
34/JFB
.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
SOUTHERN STATES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE...A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE/TROF ADVANCES WESTWARD OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THU...MOVING INTO LOUISIANA AND DISSIPATING. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE AND WEAK LIFT IT WILL CAUSE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THU AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN RESULTS IN
LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
THROUGH FRI.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS LOOK TO RECOVER ALONG AND HEAD OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE TO ~ 2 INCHES. AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...MID LEVEL ENERGY RIPPLING THROUGH WILL SUPPORT LIFT
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT FOR AN UPWARD TREND IN POP. FRONT CONTINUES
INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECASTERS HAVE 30 PERCENT CHANCES
ON SUNDAY WHEN THE HIGHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SIGNAL WILL BE PASSING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION WITH THE FRONT. HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK...THE PHYSICAL SOLUTION OF THE OPERATION GFS AND THE 08.00
UTC RUN OF THE CANADIAN GEM INDICATE A LOW LEVEL RIDGE BECOMING
ESTABLISHED WHILE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DECREASES UNDER A DRIER
MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY FLOW. MOS POPS AROUND 20% RANGE
MON/TUE LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO ~10% OR LESS... WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE
ADVERTISED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...GIVEN THE DRIER SIGNALS IN THE
MODEL DATA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SAW NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE EXTENDED RANGE MOS
TEMPERATURES...WHICH INDICATE HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 90S. NIGHTTIME
LOWS...MID 60S-NEAR 70 OVER THE INTERIOR TO LOWER-MID 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. WITH THE LOWER-MID 90S HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MORE
HUMIDITY...HEAT INDICES WILL MOVE ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK
=>100-104...FOR MOST AREAS THU-SAT. /10
&&
.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DAY EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE WITH
THE SEABREEZE...BUT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS.
34/JFB
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA
AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND LIKELY PUSHES INTO THE MARINE WATERS.
THEREFORE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS (10-15 KT) NEAR SHORE
AND IN AREA BAYS WITH A MODERATE CHOP DEVELOPING MID-LATE AFTN.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS CURRENTLY RUNNING 2-3 FT SETTLE TO
1-2 FT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. 34/JFB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES 35 TO 40% ARE FORECAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST ZONES TODAY WHILE 45-55% ON AVERAGE ALONG THE COASTAL
ZONES. SIMILAR HUMIDITIES ANTICIPATED THU. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER WILL BE LIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR AVERAGE
TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WITH MORE HUMIDITY
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S...FIRE WEATHER FEDERAL/STATE/LOCAL
AGENCIES CONDUCTING ANY CONTROLLED BURN ACTIVITIES SHOULD PREPARE
FOR HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK TODAY AND THU. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 92 72 93 72 / 05 05 20 10
PENSACOLA 92 74 92 75 / 10 05 20 10
DESTIN 90 76 90 76 / 10 05 20 10
EVERGREEN 94 67 96 67 / 05 05 10 10
WAYNESBORO 94 68 95 69 / 05 05 10 10
CAMDEN 95 68 96 68 / 05 05 10 05
CRESTVIEW 94 67 95 67 / 05 05 20 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 081724
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1223 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS N AL THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF
THE SFC FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM N AR NEWD INTO THE
VIRGINIAS. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SWD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A FEW TS SHIFTING
SWD INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. SEVERAL MODELS ARE
DEPICTING SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE
LATER TODAY NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR. ADJUSTED CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SLIGHTLY SWD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.
BUMPED AFTN HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN A COUPLE
LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN THE SE. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. UPDATES ARE OUT.
19
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SCT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS N AL OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL AL LATER
TODAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20
CORRIDOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND/OR OLD
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE CB WORDING IN FOR THE
FOUR NORTHERN SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF RA OR TS
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. MGM AND TOI REMAIN IN A DRIER
AIR MASS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH ONLY A FEW CU
EXPECTED THAT FAR SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-7 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH NW WINDS IN THE NORTH AND MORE OF A SW WIND IN THE SOUTH.
NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND
WX) AMENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE
CEILOMETER DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED
FOR ACCURACY.
19
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010/
NO REAL CHANGE IN THINKING REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR THE COMING
WEEK...AS TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL TAKE AIM ON CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE FIRST WILL BE THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE LIES JUST
TO OUR NORTH. SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN MS AND
SOUTHERN TN. LOOK FOR THE ACTIVITY TO PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THAT BOUNDARY TRIES TO DIG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL PREVENT A LOT OF ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. WILL KEEP AND INCREASE
POPS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DEVELOP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING HOURS. NOT EXPECTING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT
OF COVERAGE AS A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DRY FOR THE MOMENT.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST MOVES FURTHER WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THAT SAME BOUNDARY WILL
ADJUST MORE TO THE EAST WITH TIME...AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP STEAM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY AND WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BY SATURDAY. WAS
A LITTLE SURPRISED WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF BEING GENERATED WITH
THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS ALABAMA..SO WITH THAT WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
BY SUNDAY...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT CLEARING THE
AREA...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES AS AN EXCEPTION. WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS BACK TOWARDS THE 50S BY THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 081645
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS N AL THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF
THE SFC FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM N AR NEWD INTO THE
VIRGINIAS. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SWD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A FEW TS SHIFTING
SWD INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. SEVERAL MODELS ARE
DEPICTING SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE
LATER TODAY NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR. ADJUSTED CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SLIGHTLY SWD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.
BUMPED AFTN HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN A COUPLE
LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN THE SE. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. UPDATES ARE OUT.
19
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS. HIGH MID LEVEL AND CIRRUS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA BUT POTENTIAL FOR AFFECTING TCL
AND BHM ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND
WX) AMENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE
CEILOMETER DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED
FOR ACCURACY.
88
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010/
NO REAL CHANGE IN THINKING REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR THE COMING
WEEK...AS TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL TAKE AIM ON CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE FIRST WILL BE THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE LIES JUST
TO OUR NORTH. SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN MS AND
SOUTHERN TN. LOOK FOR THE ACTIVITY TO PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THAT BOUNDARY TRIES TO DIG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL PREVENT A LOT OF ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. WILL KEEP AND INCREASE
POPS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DEVELOP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING HOURS. NOT EXPECTING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT
OF COVERAGE AS A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DRY FOR THE MOMENT.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST MOVES FURTHER WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THAT SAME BOUNDARY WILL
ADJUST MORE TO THE EAST WITH TIME...AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP STEAM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY AND WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BY SATURDAY. WAS
A LITTLE SURPRISED WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF BEING GENERATED WITH
THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS ALABAMA..SO WITH THAT WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
BY SUNDAY...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT CLEARING THE
AREA...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES AS AN EXCEPTION. WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS BACK TOWARDS THE 50S BY THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 90 67 89 63 91 / 30 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 92 68 90 65 92 / 20 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 94 71 90 69 92 / 30 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 93 69 93 68 95 / 20 10 10 10 10
CALERA 92 69 91 68 93 / 20 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 93 70 89 68 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 94 69 95 69 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
TROY 93 66 94 68 94 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 081611 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1111 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.UPDATE...TO INCREASE POPS/LOWER TEMPS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL TN COUPLED WITH
SOME INDIRECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM REMNANTS OF
HERMINE HAVE CAUSED ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS ACROSS N
AL. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DEPICTING A GENERAL INCREASE OF SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHWARD. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MOST
OF N AL AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE AREA.
A LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER DECK WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HAVE THUS LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS ESPECIALLY OVER NW AL WHERE
RAINFALL HAS DROPPED THE TEMP INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010/
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EARLY
MORNING. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD INTO THE
AREA...WITH DEW PTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREE
RANGE. WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE OH VALLEY REGION TO THE
SRN PLAINS STATES CONTINUES TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SE. THE FRONT IS
XPCTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AREA LATER TODAY...WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. OVERALL TEMPS
THOUGH DO NOT LOOK TO RESPOND MUCH INITIALLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90 XPCTED...COUPLED WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS PREDOM IN THE UPPER 60S. MINIMAL FORCING/LOW-LEVEL
CONV ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO KEEP MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY IN
THE GENERAL RANGE...ALTHOUGH BACK-BUILDING OF CELLS COULD RESULT
IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS REGION THEN LOOKS
TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE TN VALLEY ON THU...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
AND COOLER AIR IN TOW. LINGERING MOISTURE ABOVE H85...COUPLED WITH
LATENT HEATING EFFECTS...COULD STILL TRANSLATE INTO A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BOTH THU AND FRI.
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THEN LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN TO
THE FORECAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER
UPPER FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION LOOKS
TO RESULT IN A BIT MORE PRECIP COVERAGE ON SAT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE S. HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS STATES THEN LOOKS TO BUILD EWD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS
GOING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...WITH DRIER AND A BIT MORE SEASONAL WX
CONDITIONS XPCTED. AFTERNOON HIGHS THOUGH MAY STILL CLIMB TOWARD THE
UPPER 80S RANGE HEADING TOWARD MID WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
XPCTED UNDER A NWLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
PREV DISCUSSION...09
UPDATE...SL.77
000
FXUS64 KBMX 081155
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
655 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NO REAL CHANGE IN THINKING REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR THE COMING
WEEK...AS TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL TAKE AIM ON CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE FIRST WILL BE THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE LIES JUST
TO OUR NORTH. SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN MS AND
SOUTHERN TN. LOOK FOR THE ACTIVITY TO PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THAT BOUNDARY TRIES TO DIG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL PREVENT A LOT OF ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. WILL KEEP AND INCREASE
POPS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DEVELOP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING HOURS. NOT EXPECTING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT
OF COVERAGE AS A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DRY FOR THE MOMENT.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST MOVES FURTHER WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THAT SAME BOUNDARY WILL
ADJUST MORE TO THE EAST WITH TIME...AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP STEAM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY AND WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BY SATURDAY. WAS
A LITTLE SURPRISED WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF BEING GENERATED WITH
THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS ALABAMA..SO WITH THAT WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
BY SUNDAY...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT CLEARING THE
AREA...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES AS AN EXCEPTION. WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS BACK TOWARDS THE 50S BY THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS. HIGH MID LEVEL AND CIRRUS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA BUT POTENTIAL FOR AFFECTING TCL
AND BHM ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND
WX) AMENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE
CEILOMETER DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED
FOR ACCURACY.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
17/88
000
FXUS64 KHUN 081144 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
644 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING BETWEEN
17Z-22Z WITHIN THE HEAVIER -SHRA AND POSSIBLY -TSRA. OCCURRENCE
OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO -SHRA/TSRA IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS
TAF ISSUANCE. PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KMSL AFTER 09Z
ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010/
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EARLY
MORNING. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD INTO THE
AREA...WITH DEW PTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREE
RANGE. WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE OH VALLEY REGION TO THE
SRN PLAINS STATES CONTINUES TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SE. THE FRONT IS
XPCTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AREA LATER TODAY...WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. OVERALL TEMPS
THOUGH DO NOT LOOK TO RESPOND MUCH INITIALLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90 XPCTED...COUPLED WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS PREDOM IN THE UPPER 60S. MINIMAL FORCING/LOW-LEVEL
CONV ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO KEEP MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY IN
THE GENERAL RANGE...ALTHOUGH BACK-BUILDING OF CELLS COULD RESULT
IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS REGION THEN LOOKS
TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE TN VALLEY ON THU...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
AND COOLER AIR IN TOW. LINGERING MOISTURE ABOVE H85...COUPLED WITH
LATENT HEATING EFFECTS...COULD STILL TRANSLATE INTO A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BOTH THU AND FRI.
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THEN LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN TO
THE FORECAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER
UPPER FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION LOOKS
TO RESULT IN A BIT MORE PRECIP COVERAGE ON SAT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE S. HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS STATES THEN LOOKS TO BUILD EWD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS
GOING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...WITH DRIER AND A BIT MORE SEASONAL WX
CONDITIONS XPCTED. AFTERNOON HIGHS THOUGH MAY STILL CLIMB TOWARD THE
UPPER 80S RANGE HEADING TOWARD MID WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
XPCTED UNDER A NWLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...KNS
DISCUSSION...09
000
FXUS64 KMOB 080915
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...KEEPING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE WELL TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA AGAIN
TODAY...WITH PRECIP WATERS HOVERING NEAR AN INCH OVER THE INTERIOR
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEABREEZE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE OVERALL
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOW
90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A WEAK FRONT
OVER THE TN VALLEY TRIES TO PUSH SOUTH...BUT THE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP
THE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. LOWS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
34/JFB
.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
SOUTHERN STATES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE...A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE/TROF ADVANCES WESTWARD OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THU...MOVING INTO LOUISIANA AND DISSIPATING. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE AND WEAK LIFT IT WILL CAUSE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN RESULTS IN LIGHT
WINDS...GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
FRI.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS LOOK TO RECOVER ALONG AND HEAD OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE TO ~ 2 INCHES. AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER OVER THE SOUTHEAST...MID
LEVEL ENERGY RIPPLING THROUGH WILL SUPPORT LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT FOR AN UPWARD TREND IN POP. FRONT CONTINUES INTO THE GULF EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FORECASTERS HAVE 30 PERCENT CHANCES ON SUNDAY WHEN THE
HIGHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SIGNAL WILL BE PASSING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
REGION WITH THE FRONT. HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...THE
PHYSICAL SOLUTION OF THE OPERATION GFS AND THE 08.00 UTC RUN OF THE
CANADIAN GEM INDICATE A LOW LEVEL RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED WHILE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DECREASES UNDER A DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY FLOW. MOS POPS AROUND 20% RANGE MON/TUE LOOK TO
BE CLOSER TO ~10% OR LESS... WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE ADVERTISED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...GIVEN THE DRIER SIGNALS IN THE MODEL DATA LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
SAW NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE EXTENDED RANGE MOS TEMPERATURES...WHICH
INDICATE HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 90S. NIGHTTIME LOWS...MID 60S-NEAR 70
OVER THE INTERIOR TO LOWER-MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. WITH THE
LOWER-MID 90S HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMIDITY...HEAT INDICES WILL
MOVE ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK =>100-104...FOR MOST AREAS THU-SAT. /10
&&
.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DAY EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE WITH
THE SEABREEZE...BUT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS.
34/JFB
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA
AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND LIKELY PUSHES INTO THE MARINE WATERS.
THEREFORE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS (10-15 KT) NEAR SHORE
AND IN AREA BAYS WITH A MODERATE CHOP DEVELOPING MID-LATE AFTN. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ANTICIPATED
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS CURRENTLY RUNNING 2-3 FT SETTLE TO 1-2 FT FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
34/JFB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES 35 TO 40% ARE FORECAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST ZONES TODAY WHILE 45-55% ON AVERAGE ALONG THE COASTAL
ZONES. SIMILAR HUMIDITIES ANTICIPATED THU. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER WILL BE LIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR AVERAGE
TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WITH MORE HUMIDITY
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S...FIRE WEATHER FEDERAL/STATE/LOCAL AGENCIES
CONDUCTING ANY CONTROLLED BURN ACTIVITIES SHOULD PREPARE FOR HEAT
INDICES CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK TODAY AND THU. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 92 72 93 72 / 05 05 20 10
PENSACOLA 92 74 92 75 / 10 05 20 10
DESTIN 90 76 90 76 / 10 05 20 10
EVERGREEN 94 67 96 67 / 05 05 10 10
WAYNESBORO 94 68 95 69 / 05 05 10 10
CAMDEN 95 68 96 68 / 05 05 10 05
CRESTVIEW 94 67 95 67 / 05 05 20 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 080826
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
326 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.DISCUSSION...
NO REAL CHANGE IN THINKING REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR THE COMING
WEEK...AS TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL TAKE AIM ON CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE FIRST WILL BE THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE LIES JUST
TO OUR NORTH. SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN MS AND
SOUTHERN TN. LOOK FOR THE ACTIVITY TO PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THAT BOUNDARY TRIES TO DIG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL PREVENT A LOT OF ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. WILL KEEP AND INCREASE
POPS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DEVELOP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING HOURS. NOT EXPECTING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT
OF COVERAGE AS A LOT OF DRY AIR REMAINS ALOFT...SO WILL KEEP AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DRY FOR THE MOMENT.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST MOVES FURTHER WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THAT SAME BOUNDARY WILL
ADJUST MORE TO THE EAST WITH TIME...AND IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP STEAM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY AND WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BY SATURDAY. WAS
A LITTLE SURPRISED WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF BEING GENERATED WITH
THIS FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS ALABAMA..SO WITH THAT WENT
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
BY SUNDAY...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT CLEARING THE
AREA...WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES AS AN EXCEPTION. WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS BACK TOWARDS THE 50S BY THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK.
17/KLAWS
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WITH THE ADDED
MOISTURE FROM A FEW SHOWERS NEAR EET AND TCL...HAVE ELECTED TO ADD
IN A TEMPO MVFR BR AFTER 9Z. VIS ALREADY SHOWING UP AT 7SM AT
EET...SO IT WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OF A STRETCH. NOT THAT CONFIDENT
THOUGH TO GO ANY LOWER. ALSO WATCHING A BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVE
IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...DUE TO THE COLLISION OF THE OUTER
BANDS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH.
AFTER THE BR CLEARS LOOK FOR SCT TO BKN CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTH.
INCLUDED CB AFTER 17 TO 18Z...DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD
HELP WITH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME AS THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH.
NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND
WX) AMENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE
CEILOMETER DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED
FOR ACCURACY.
16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 90 67 89 63 91 / 30 10 10 10 10
ANNISTON 92 68 90 65 92 / 20 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 92 71 90 69 92 / 20 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 93 69 93 68 95 / 20 10 10 10 10
CALERA 92 69 91 68 93 / 10 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 91 70 89 68 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 94 69 95 69 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
TROY 92 66 94 68 94 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
17/16
000
FXUS64 KHUN 080735
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
235 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE
THIS EARLY MORNING. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD INTO THE
AREA...WITH DEW PTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREE
RANGE. WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE OH VALLEY REGION TO THE
SRN PLAINS STATES CONTINUES TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SE. THE FRONT IS
XPCTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AREA LATER TODAY...WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. OVERALL TEMPS
THOUGH DO NOT LOOK TO RESPOND MUCH INITIALLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90 XPCTED...COUPLED WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS PREDOM IN THE UPPER 60S. MINIMAL FORCING/LOW-LEVEL
CONV ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO KEEP MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE
GENERAL RANGE...ALTHOUGH BACK-BUILDING OF CELLS COULD RESULT IN SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS REGION THEN LOOKS
TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE TN VALLEY ON THU...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
AND COOLER AIR IN TOW. LINGERING MOISTURE ABOVE H85...COUPLED WITH
LATENT HEATING EFFECTS...COULD STILL TRANSLATE INTO A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS BOTH THU AND FRI.
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THEN LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN TO
THE FORECAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT OUT OF THE MIDWEST STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER
UPPER FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION LOOKS
TO RESULT IN A BIT MORE PRECIP COVERAGE ON SAT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE S. HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS STATES THEN LOOKS TO BUILD EWD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS
GOING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...WITH DRIER AND A BIT MORE SEASONAL WX
CONDITIONS XPCTED. AFTERNOON HIGHS THOUGH MAY STILL CLIMB TOWARD THE
UPPER 80S RANGE HEADING TOWARD MID WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
XPCTED UNDER A NWLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 91 68 89 66 92 / 40 20 20 10 20
SHOALS 90 68 89 66 93 / 50 20 20 10 20
VINEMONT 90 68 89 66 91 / 40 20 20 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 89 66 87 65 91 / 50 20 20 10 20
ALBERTVILLE 90 69 88 67 90 / 40 20 20 10 10
FORT PAYNE 89 67 88 65 91 / 40 20 20 10 20
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
09
000
FXUS64 KHUN 080533 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1233 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION WILL BRING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK WED. HAVE KEPT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN THE VFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR REDUCTIONS DUE
TO RAIN/FOG ARE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER DURING THE LATE MORNING...KEEPING A RISK FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010/
HIGH CLOUDS...SOME OF IT FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE WAS
SPREADING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS TD...
LOOKING RATHER IMPRESSIVE VIA SATELLITE WAS SPINNING WEST OF WACO
TEXAS WHILE HEADING NORTHBOUND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OTHERWISE
CONTINUED OVER THE GULF AND SE. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING TO THE
SE...EXTENDING FROM SE MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN OHIO. 9 PM TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE LOWER 70S AT CROSSVILLE AND VINEMONT...TO 82 IN HUNTSVILLE
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ADVERTISED YESTERDAY LED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW ALABAMA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS OF THIS WRITING...A LONE THUNDERSTORM
WAS MOVING TO THE ENE ACROSS LIMESTONE COUNTY...JUST SOUTH OF
ATHENS. OTHER CONVECTION CONTINUED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...MOSTLY
SOUTH OF MEMPHIS AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH...NEARING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED. ITS APPROACH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
(DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING) SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. THE 18Z NAM/GFS AND
SREF DID SHOW THIS...BUT THE NEWER 00Z NAM HAS DISCOUNTED RAIN
CHANCES. GIVEN THE FRONT`S APPROACH...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO HAVE AT
LEAST MINIMAL CHANCES FOR POPS IN. HAVE EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE GRIDS. UPDATED GRIDS
AND FORECASTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN CREATED AND SHIPPED.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
RSB
000
FXUS64 KMOB 080531 AAB
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTIONING AT THE TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DAY WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE
WITH THE SEABREEZE...BUT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 34/JFB
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...DEEPENING
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IS MOVING NORTHEAST
EAST AS ANALYZED IN 07/12Z SURFACE RAOB AND SATELLITE DATA. THE LOW
IS TILTED ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY WEST WITH HEIGHT WHICH SHOWS COLD
ADVECTION PROCESSES ARE WEAK. UPPER FEATURES ARE ALSO VERY LIMITED
IN SIZE SO OUR THINKING IS THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GOING TO
HAVE TROUBLE MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO WESTERN OK AND NORTH TX. NONETHELESS A HIGH OVER WESTLANT
OFF HAMPTON ROADS IS BRINGING A RATHER VIGOROUS ONSHORE WIND.
HOWEVER OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS FEEDING INTO AN
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW TO THE WEST WHICH BY STREAMLINE ANALYSIS IS
SHOWN TO BE CONVERGENT. THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSIDENCE WHICH
TENDS TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...NO CHANGES. UPPER HIGH TO
RECOVER OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WEAK GRADIENTS IN SYNOPTIC SCALE MEANING WEAK SURFACE
FLOW WHILE COLUMN RH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RECOVER. MOST FORCING WILL
BE ON THE MESOSCALE OR ALONG OLD BOUNDARIES. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH FORMING EARLY
NEXT WEEK OVER THE EAST THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE UPPER FLOW GETS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH SUGGESTS A
ELEVATED RAIN PROBABILITIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. 77/BD
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
FRONT DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA INTO
THURSDAY...BUT FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE
WEEKEND. SEAS INITIALLY 2 TO 3 FEET...THEN GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY
AND A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED LAYER WIND WITH DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS BRINGING
MODERATE DAYTIME DISPERSION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HUMIDITY
REMAINING ABOVE CRITERIA. 77/BD
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 080446
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST UPDATED MOSTLY TO BRING HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN LINE WITH
OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER ALSO ELECTED TO INCREASE POPS VERY SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW. INSTABILITY WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME TOMORROW AS WE SAW
TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WITH THE ADDED
MOISTURE FROM A FEW SHOWERS NEAR EET AND TCL...HAVE ELECTED TO ADD
IN A TEMPO MVFR BR AFTER 9Z. VIS ALREADY SHOWING UP AT 7SM AT
EET...SO IT WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OF A STRETCH. NOT THAT CONFIDENT
THOUGH TO GO ANY LOWER. ALSO WATCHING A BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVE
IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...DUE TO THE COLLISION OF THE OUTER
BANDS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH.
AFTER THE BR CLEARS LOOK FOR SCT TO BKN CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTH.
INCLUDED CB AFTER 17 TO 18Z...DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD
HELP WITH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME AS THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH.
NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND
WX) AMENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE
CEILOMETER DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED
FOR ACCURACY.
16
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 080245 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
945 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.UPDATE...
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS...SOME OF IT FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE WAS
SPREADING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS TD...
LOOKING RATHER IMPRESSIVE VIA SATELLITE WAS SPINNING WEST OF WACO
TEXAS WHILE HEADING NORTHBOUND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OTHERWISE
CONTINUED OVER THE GULF AND SE. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING TO THE
SE...EXTENDING FROM SE MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN OHIO. 9 PM TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE LOWER 70S AT CROSSVILLE AND VINEMONT...TO 82 IN HUNTSVILLE
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ADVERTISED YESTERDAY LED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW ALABAMA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS OF THIS WRITING...A LONE THUNDERSTORM
WAS MOVING TO THE ENE ACROSS LIMESTONE COUNTY...JUST SOUTH OF
ATHENS. OTHER CONVECTION CONTINUED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...MOSTLY
SOUTH OF MEMPHIS AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH...NEARING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WED. ITS APPROACH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
(DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING) SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. THE 18Z NAM/GFS AND
SREF DID SHOW THIS...BUT THE NEWER 00Z NAM HAS DISCOUNTED RAIN
CHANCES. GIVEN THE FRONT`S APPROACH...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO HAVE AT
LEAST MINIMAL CHANCES FOR POPS IN. HAVE EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE GRIDS. UPDATED GRIDS
AND FORECASTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN CREATED AND SHIPPED.
&&
.AVIATION... /00Z ISSUANCE/
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...WITH VFR WEATHER EXPECTED AT KMSL/KHSV THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD THE REGION MAY BRING VCSH
BEFORE DAYBREAK WED. OLDER AND NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AROUND NOON WED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST WITH THIS AFTERNOON
UPDATE. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL APPEAR FOR MOST
DAYS...THOSE CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE SMALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A PAIR OF
WEAK COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RETURN OF HIGHER HUMIDITY
HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY TAKE PLACE IN EASTERN
COUNTIES ON THURS/FRIDAY. LOWER HUMIDITY ALSO LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH MANY HIGHS IN THE 90S...AND LOW IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70.
SHORT TERM (THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CONVERGENT LOW-LVL FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY HAVE LED TO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO OUR WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO MOVE INTO
FAR NWRN ALABAMA. WHILE DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL KEEP SHOWER DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...EXPECTING
AN OVERALL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL BE LOSING COLD
ADVECTION CHARACTERISTICS AS IT PUSHES INTO THE TN VALLEY. DYNAMIC
FORCING WILL LIKEWISE WEAKEN IN ASSOC/W THE FRONT...BUT LIFT AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF BETTER
LIFT/INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
AREAS...AND SLGT CHANCE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. GIVEN LIMITED
FORCING/INSTABILITY...EXPECT JUST GENERAL TSTM ACTIVITY. HEAVIER
CELLS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO BACK-BUILD AGAINST THE PREDOM WIND
FLOW...SO HVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN ISOLD SPOTS. IN SPITE OF
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE PRESENCE OF SHOWERS...TEMPS SHOULD
STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE 90S...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
WITH FORCING RAPIDLY WEAKENING ALONG THE OLD FRONT...AND THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL JUST CARRY AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM MENTION FOR
THE EVENING TIMEFRAME.
FOR THURS...THE REMNANTS OF TS HERMINE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO MAKE AN EASTWARD TURN.
MEANWHILE...DEEPENING S-SWRLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE UPR RIDGE AND ALLOW THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FCST AREA. THE WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW
ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/TSTMS ON THURS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS. BUT...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF FEATURES...WILL JUST BLANKET THE
AREA WITH SLGT CHANCE POPS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE REMNANTS OF TS HERMINE
WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY. HOWEVER...WEAKLY SHEARED UPPER VORTICITY ON THE FAR SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM MAY HELP TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
THE AREA. WILL RETAIN THE SLGT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL AREAS...BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE FURTHER NORTH.
A VIGOROUS UPR LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE AN ATTENDANT QUICK-MOVING TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. A SFC FRONT IN ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE TN
VALLEY REGION...BUT THE UPR TROUGH WILL LOSE AMPLIFICATION AS IT
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...CHANCES FOR SHOWER/TSTMS
WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN FRONTAL TIMING...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND TAPER OFF TO SLGT CHANCE FOR SUN. HOWEVER...IF THE
LATEST MODEL DATA VERIFIES...SUNDAY MAY BE MOSTLY DRY.
CURRENTLY...DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...RSB
DISCUSSION...KDW
000
FXUS64 KBMX 072357
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED MOSTLY TO BRING HOURLY TEMPERATURES IN LINE WITH
OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER ALSO ELECTED TO INCREASE POPS VERY SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW. INSTABILITY WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME TOMORROW AS WE SAW
TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
NOT TOO FAR TO CENTRAL ALABAMA`S WEST...IN THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
MASS IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI. CLOSE BUT (AS OF THIS WRITING) NOT
QUITE FOR OUR AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THINGS A BIT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT I THINK WE CAN GO WITH A RAINLESS
FORECAST AREAWIDE FOR TONIGHT.
THE SOUTHEASTERN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...WHICH HAS BEEN
A PREDOMINANT FEATURE THIS SUMMER...WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE ON ALABAMA THROUGH (AT LEAST) THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE COMING UP AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...A RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES FROM GETTING ANY HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT. THE REMNANTS
OF HERMINE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A NON-FACTOR...STAYING WELL
TO THE WEST AND (ULTIMATELY) NORTH.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO BRING THE OCCASIONAL COLD FRONT THROUGH
HERE. OF COURSE...COLD FRONTS THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY JUST CONSIST
OF A PUSH OF DRY AIR. THERE`S LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND
RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SO RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO
REMAIN SMALL.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SCT CU FIELD
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW...BESIDES THE HIGH
SHIFTING A TAD FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO NORTH AL. RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW AT ALL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY TO MENTION ANY WX IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. DID GO AHEAD AND MENTION CBS FOR THE NORTHERN FOUR TAF
SITES WITH VARIABLE TIMING BETWEEN 17 AND 00Z. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT FOR BHM AND ANB AT LEAST BY 21Z TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW VERSUS SOUTHERLY.
ALSO ADDED IN A SCT 5 TO 6 KFT CEILING AT TOI AND MGM. IF THE
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND AND PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED THEN SH
OR TS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN LATER FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN SITES. NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND
WX) AMENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE
CEILOMETER DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED
FOR ACCURACY.
16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 63 93 69 93 64 / 10 20 10 10 10
ANNISTON 65 94 69 93 67 / 10 20 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 72 93 73 94 72 / 10 20 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 69 96 68 95 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
CALERA 70 92 71 94 70 / 10 20 10 10 10
AUBURN 68 92 71 94 70 / 10 10 0 10 10
MONTGOMERY 69 94 70 97 71 / 10 10 0 10 10
TROY 68 94 67 95 69 / 10 10 0 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/07/07
000
FXUS64 KMOB 072345 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
645 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING
RESTRICTING VSBYS BELOW MVFR EXPECTED. ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TAF.
&&
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...DEEPENING
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IS MOVING NORTHEAST
EAST AS ANALYZED IN 07/12Z SURFACE RAOB AND SATELLITE DATA. THE LOW
IS TILTED ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY WEST WITH HEIGHT WHICH SHOWS COLD
ADVECTION PROCESSES ARE WEAK. UPPER FEATURES ARE ALSO VERY LIMITED
IN SIZE SO OUR THINKING IS THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GOING TO
HAVE TROUBLE MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO WESTERN OK AND NORTH TX. NONETHELESS A HIGH OVER WESTLANT
OFF HAMPTON ROADS IS BRINGING A RATHER VIGOROUS ONSHORE WIND.
HOWEVER OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS FEEDING INTO AN
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW TO THE WEST WHICH BY STREAMLINE ANALYSIS IS
SHOWN TO BE CONVERGENT. THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSIDENCE WHICH
TENDS TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...NO CHANGES. UPPER HIGH TO
RECOVER OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WEAK GRADIENTS IN SYNOPTIC SCALE MEANING WEAK SURFACE
FLOW WHILE COLUMN RH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RECOVER. MOST FORCING WILL
BE ON THE MESOSCALE OR ALONG OLD BOUNDARIES. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH FORMING EARLY
NEXT WEEK OVER THE EAST THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE UPPER FLOW GETS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH SUGGESTS A
ELEVATED RAIN PROBABILITIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. 77/BD
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
FRONT DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA INTO
THURSDAY...BUT FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE
WEEKEND. SEAS INITIALLY 2 TO 3 FEET...THEN GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY
AND A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED LAYER WIND WITH DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS BRINGING
MODERATE DAYTIME DISPERSION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HUMIDITY
REMAINING ABOVE CRITERIA. 77/BD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 71 92 70 91 / 05 10 05 10
PENSACOLA 73 91 72 92 / 05 20 10 10
DESTIN 78 86 78 86 / 05 20 10 10
EVERGREEN 67 95 67 96 / 05 10 05 10
WAYNESBORO 67 94 66 94 / 05 05 05 10
CAMDEN 67 96 67 95 / 05 05 05 10
CRESTVIEW 69 93 69 93 / 05 10 05 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 072331 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
631 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...WITH VFR WEATHER EXPECTED AT KMSL/KHSV THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD THE REGION MAY BRING VCSH
BEFORE DAYBREAK WED. OLDER AND NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AROUND NOON WED.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST WITH THIS AFTERNOON
UPDATE. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL APPEAR FOR MOST
DAYS...THOSE CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE SMALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A PAIR OF
WEAK COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RETURN OF HIGHER HUMIDITY
HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY TAKE PLACE IN EASTERN
COUNTIES ON THURS/FRIDAY. LOWER HUMIDITY ALSO LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH MANY HIGHS IN THE 90S...AND LOW IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70.
SHORT TERM (THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CONVERGENT LOW-LVL FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY HAVE LED TO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO OUR WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO MOVE INTO
FAR NWRN ALABAMA. WHILE DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL KEEP SHOWER DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...EXPECTING
AN OVERALL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL BE LOSING COLD
ADVECTION CHARACTERISTICS AS IT PUSHES INTO THE TN VALLEY. DYNAMIC
FORCING WILL LIKEWISE WEAKEN IN ASSOC/W THE FRONT...BUT LIFT AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF BETTER
LIFT/INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
AREAS...AND SLGT CHANCE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. GIVEN LIMITED
FORCING/INSTABILITY...EXPECT JUST GENERAL TSTM ACTIVITY. HEAVIER
CELLS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO BACK-BUILD AGAINST THE PREDOM WIND
FLOW...SO HVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN ISOLD SPOTS. IN SPITE OF
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE PRESENCE OF SHOWERS...TEMPS SHOULD
STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE 90S...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
WITH FORCING RAPIDLY WEAKENING ALONG THE OLD FRONT...AND THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL JUST CARRY AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM MENTION FOR
THE EVENING TIMEFRAME.
FOR THURS...THE REMNANTS OF TS HERMINE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO MAKE AN EASTWARD TURN.
MEANWHILE...DEEPENING S-SWRLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE UPR RIDGE AND ALLOW THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FCST AREA. THE WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW
ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/TSTMS ON THURS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS. BUT...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF FEATURES...WILL JUST BLANKET THE
AREA WITH SLGT CHANCE POPS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE REMNANTS OF TS HERMINE
WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY. HOWEVER...WEAKLY SHEARED UPPER VORTICITY ON THE FAR SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM MAY HELP TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
THE AREA. WILL RETAIN THE SLGT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL AREAS...BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE FURTHER NORTH.
A VIGOROUS UPR LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE AN ATTENDANT QUICK-MOVING TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. A SFC FRONT IN ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE TN
VALLEY REGION...BUT THE UPR TROUGH WILL LOSE AMPLIFICATION AS IT
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...CHANCES FOR SHOWER/TSTMS
WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN FRONTAL TIMING...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND TAPER OFF TO SLGT CHANCE FOR SUN. HOWEVER...IF THE
LATEST MODEL DATA VERIFIES...SUNDAY MAY BE MOSTLY DRY.
CURRENTLY...DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...RSB
DISCUSSION...KDW
000
FXUS64 KBMX 072330
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
NOT TOO FAR TO CENTRAL ALABAMA`S WEST...IN THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
MASS IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI. CLOSE BUT (AS OF THIS WRITING) NOT
QUITE FOR OUR AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THINGS A BIT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT I THINK WE CAN GO WITH A RAINLESS
FORECAST AREAWIDE FOR TONIGHT.
THE SOUTHEASTERN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...WHICH HAS BEEN
A PREDOMINANT FEATURE THIS SUMMER...WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE ON ALABAMA THROUGH (AT LEAST) THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE COMING UP AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...A RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES FROM GETTING ANY HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT. THE REMNANTS
OF HERMINE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A NON-FACTOR...STAYING WELL
TO THE WEST AND (ULTIMATELY) NORTH.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO BRING THE OCCASIONAL COLD FRONT THROUGH
HERE. OF COURSE...COLD FRONTS THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY JUST CONSIST
OF A PUSH OF DRY AIR. THERE`S LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND
RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SO RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO
REMAIN SMALL.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SCT CU FIELD
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH OF A
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW...BESIDES THE HIGH
SHIFTING A TAD FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO NORTH AL. RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW AT ALL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY TO MENTION ANY WX IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. DID GO AHEAD AND MENTION CBS FOR THE NORTHERN FOUR TAF
SITES WITH VARIABLE TIMING BETWEEN 17 AND 00Z. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT FOR BHM AND ANB AT LEAST BY 21Z TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW VERSUS SOUTHERLY.
ALSO ADDED IN A SCT 5 TO 6 KFT CEILING AT TOI AND MGM. IF THE
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND AND PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED THEN SH
OR TS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN LATER FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN SITES. NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND
WX) AMENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE
CEILOMETER DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED
FOR ACCURACY.
16
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 072011
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
311 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST WITH THIS AFTERNOON
UPDATE. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL APPEAR FOR MOST
DAYS...THOSE CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE SMALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A PAIR OF
WEAK COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RETURN OF HIGHER HUMIDITY
HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY TAKE PLACE IN EASTERN
COUNTIES ON THURS/FRIDAY. LOWER HUMIDITY ALSO LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH MANY HIGHS IN THE 90S...AND LOW IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70.
SHORT TERM (THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CONVERGENT LOW-LVL FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY HAVE LED TO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO OUR WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO MOVE INTO
FAR NWRN ALABAMA. WHILE DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL KEEP SHOWER DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...EXPECTING
AN OVERALL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL BE LOSING COLD
ADVECTION CHARACTERISTICS AS IT PUSHES INTO THE TN VALLEY. DYNAMIC
FORCING WILL LIKEWISE WEAKEN IN ASSOC/W THE FRONT...BUT LIFT AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF BETTER
LIFT/INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
AREAS...AND SLGT CHANCE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. GIVEN LIMITED
FORCING/INSTABILITY...EXPECT JUST GENERAL TSTM ACTIVITY. HEAVIER
CELLS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO BACK-BUILD AGAINST THE PREDOM WIND
FLOW...SO HVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN ISOLD SPOTS. IN SPITE OF
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE PRESENCE OF SHOWERS...TEMPS SHOULD
STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE 90S...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
WITH FORCING RAPIDLY WEAKENING ALONG THE OLD FRONT...AND THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WILL JUST CARRY AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM MENTION FOR
THE EVENING TIMEFRAME.
FOR THURS...THE REMNANTS OF TS HERMINE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO MAKE AN EASTWARD TURN.
MEANWHILE...DEEPENING S-SWRLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE UPR RIDGE AND ALLOW THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FCST AREA. THE WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW
ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE ISOLD
SHOWERS/TSTMS ON THURS...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS. BUT...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF FEATURES...WILL JUST BLANKET THE
AREA WITH SLGT CHANCE POPS.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE REMNANTS OF TS HERMINE
WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY. HOWEVER...WEAKLY SHEARED UPPER VORTICITY ON THE FAR SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM MAY HELP TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
THE AREA. WILL RETAIN THE SLGT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL AREAS...BUT
BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE FURTHER NORTH.
A VIGOROUS UPR LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE AN ATTENDANT QUICK-MOVING TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. A SFC FRONT IN ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE TN
VALLEY REGION...BUT THE UPR TROUGH WILL LOSE AMPLIFICATION AS IT
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...CHANCES FOR SHOWER/TSTMS
WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN FRONTAL TIMING...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND TAPER OFF TO SLGT CHANCE FOR SUN. HOWEVER...IF THE
LATEST MODEL DATA VERIFIES...SUNDAY MAY BE MOSTLY DRY.
CURRENTLY...DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 70 90 68 90 68 / 20 30 10 20 10
SHOALS 70 91 67 91 67 / 20 30 10 20 10
VINEMONT 71 90 68 91 68 / 10 30 10 20 10
FAYETTEVILLE 69 88 66 89 65 / 20 40 10 20 10
ALBERTVILLE 69 91 68 89 67 / 10 20 10 20 10
FORT PAYNE 66 90 66 90 64 / 10 30 10 20 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
KDW
000
FXUS64 KBMX 072003
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
303 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
NOT TOO FAR TO CENTRAL ALABAMA`S WEST...IN THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
MASS IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI. CLOSE BUT (AS OF THIS WRITING) NOT
QUITE FOR OUR AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THINGS A BIT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT I THINK WE CAN GO WITH A RAINLESS
FORECAST AREAWIDE FOR TONIGHT.
THE SOUTHEASTERN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...WHICH HAS BEEN
A PREDOMINANT FEATURE THIS SUMMER...WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE ON ALABAMA THROUGH (AT LEAST) THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE COMING UP AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...A RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES FROM GETTING ANY HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT. THE REMNANTS
OF HERMINE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A NON-FACTOR...STAYING WELL
TO THE WEST AND (ULTIMATELY) NORTH.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO BRING THE OCCASIONAL COLD FRONT THROUGH
HERE. OF COURSE...COLD FRONTS THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY JUST CONSIST
OF A PUSH OF DRY AIR. THERE`S LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND
RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SO RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO
REMAIN SMALL.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SCT CU FIELD
DEVELOPING AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALSO
DEVELOPING IN WEST MS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STAYS PARKED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO NORTH
AL. RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT ALL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY TO
MENTION ANY WX IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. IF THE MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND AND PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED THEN SH OR TS MAY HAVE
TO BE ADDED IN LATER FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN SITES.
NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 63 93 69 93 64 / 10 20 10 10 10
ANNISTON 65 94 69 93 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 72 93 73 94 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 68 96 68 95 69 / 10 10 10 10 10
CALERA 70 92 71 94 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 68 92 71 94 70 / 0 0 0 10 10
MONTGOMERY 71 94 70 97 71 / 0 0 0 10 10
TROY 68 94 67 95 69 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 071956
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
256 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...DEEPENING
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IS MOVING NORTHEAST
EAST AS ANALYZED IN 07/12Z SURFACE RAOB AND SATELLITE DATA. THE LOW
IS TILTED ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY WEST WITH HEIGHT WHICH SHOWS COLD
ADVECTION PROCESSES ARE WEAK. UPPER FEATURES ARE ALSO VERY LIMITED
IN SIZE SO OUR THINKING IS THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GOING TO
HAVE TROUBLE MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO WESTERN OK AND NORTH TX. NONETHELESS A HIGH OVER WESTLANT
OFF HAMPTON ROADS IS BRINGING A RATHER VIGOROUS ONSHORE WIND.
HOWEVER OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS FEEDING INTO AN
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW TO THE WEST WHICH BY STREAMLINE ANALYSIS IS
SHOWN TO BE CONVERGENT. THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSIDENCE WHICH
TENDS TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...NO CHANGES. UPPER HIGH TO
RECOVER OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WEAK GRADIENTS IN SYNOPTIC SCALE MEANING WEAK SURFACE
FLOW WHILE COLUMN RH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RECOVER. MOST FORCING WILL
BE ON THE MESOSCALE OR ALONG OLD BOUNDARIES. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH FORMING EARLY
NEXT WEEK OVER THE EAST THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE UPPER FLOW GETS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH SUGGESTS A
ELEVATED RAIN PROBABILITIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. 77/BD
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
FRONT DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA INTO
THURSDAY...BUT FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE
WEEKEND. SEAS INITIALLY 2 TO 3 FEET...THEN GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. 12/DS
&&
.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR EARLY THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE NEAR THE COAST...ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. PATCHY FOG IN SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING RESTRICTING VSBYS
BELOW MVFR EXPECTED. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY
AND A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND. LIGHT MIXED LAYER WIND WITH DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS BRINGING
MODERATE DAYTIME DISPERSION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HUMIDITY
REMAINING ABOVE CRITERIA. 77/BD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 71 92 70 91 / 05 10 05 10
PENSACOLA 73 91 72 92 / 05 20 10 10
DESTIN 78 86 78 86 / 05 20 10 10
EVERGREEN 67 95 67 96 / 05 10 05 10
WAYNESBORO 67 94 66 94 / 05 05 05 10
CAMDEN 67 96 67 95 / 05 05 05 10
CRESTVIEW 69 93 69 93 / 05 10 05 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 071752 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS NEAR KMSL. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE FOR NOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../PREVIOUSLY ISSUED 1031 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010/...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
MORNING WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN RESPONSE TO T.S. HERMINE COMING ASHORE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO OKLAHOMA.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND BY LATE AFTERNOON...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME NORTHWEST
ALABAMA AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH MEANDERS SOUTHWARD.
POPS WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY OUT WEST TODAY...AND THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST. OTHER THAN TWEAKING
AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR SO OUT WEST...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE.
UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
12
000
FXUS64 KBMX 071723
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1223 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.UPDATE...AFTER FURTHER REVIEW...IT APPEARS THERE IS A WEAK MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA STATE LINE.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS AREA IS ALSO IN AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT ZONE.
WILL ADD THE MENTION SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. IT
APPEARS THAT THE INSTABILITY WILL NOT GO LOW ENOUGH FOR THE WET
MICROBURST POTENTIAL TO BECOME A PROBLEM. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
IF THE CAPE VALUES CAN EXCEED 1500.
ADDED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
75
&&
.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES ON THE MAP THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE HAS MADE LANDFALL IN SOUTH TEXAS...A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO
OKLAHOMA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS BARELY IDENTIFIABLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF THE 12Z RAOB WAS 1.23
INCHES AT BMX...1.73 AT JAN...AND 1.05 AT FFC. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP THE MEAN MOISTURE AXIS WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THIS MOISTURE AXIS APPROACHING NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. 16Z
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...SOME 5 DEGREES
ABOVE YESTERDAY MORNINGS READINGS. WILL INCREASE HIGHS A DEGREE OR
SO IN A FEW PLACES...BUT MAINLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES AREA WIDE. OVERALL
FORECAST CHANGES ARE MINIMAL...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
75/LINHARES
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SCT CU FIELD
DEVELOPING AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALSO
DEVELOPING IN WEST MS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STAYS PARKED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO NORTH
AL. RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT ALL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY TO
MENTION ANY WX IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. IF THE MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND AND PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED THEN SH OR TS MAY HAVE
TO BE ADDED IN LATER FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN SITES.
NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.
19
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010/.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WARM FRONT IS PRODUCING A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND MID 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. STRONGER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALSO
PRODUCING ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN RIDGES AND
VALLEYS. DESPITE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND 1-1.5 INCHES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT INTO NORTH
ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DOES
NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME DUE TO WEAK LIFT ALONG FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA AND NO UPPER LEVEL FORCING...RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL ON
THURSDAY. REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST OF ALABAMA AS IT GETS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS STATES
AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES ON
FRIDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER GULF COAST STATES AND KEEP A
LID ON DIURNAL CONVECTION. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS STATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT INTO
ALABAMA BY SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF IS
FAIRLY FLAT AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH LIFT AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AND RAIN CHANCES KEPT ON THE LOW END OF
THE SPECTRUM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
58
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 071722 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 07/18Z...VFR TODAY WITH A FEW VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR NEAR ANY SHOWER THAT
MANAGES TO DEVELOP. GENERALLY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN
SOME LOCATIONS. 12/DS
******************************PREVIOUS*****************************
.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SHOULD BE GENERALLY
RAIN FREE...WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH IS TOWARD THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
AND THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD FROM
THE TROPICAL STORM MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MIGHT BE A FEW
BRIEF POPUP SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST LIKE YESTERDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH OF
A CHANCE TO JUSTIFY PUTTING IN FORECAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 90S AGAIN WITH THE UPPER HIGH REMAINING PARKED OVER
THE AREA. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ALSO COME UP A FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY DOWNBURST POTENTIAL IS MODERATE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...LOW ELSEWHERE. /11
&&
.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...WHILE
A WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN/WIND FLOW IS FORECAST.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RECOVER AND CONSIDERING WEAK
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE FOR WEAK LIFT...FORECASTERS HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DAYTIME TSTMS IN THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE WEEKEND THEN LOWERING HEIGHTS=>TROFFING
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE EAST WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO RIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE DIFFLUENT
NORTHWEST...HIGH LEVEL FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE EAST COAST TROF
SUN-TUE. CONSIDERING THIS AND THE SURFACE FRONT PROVIDING A SURFACE
FOCUS FOR LIFT...SUGGESTS A NEED FOR PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
TO BE UP A CATEGORY LATER IN THE WEEKEND...THEN MAINTAINING SIMILAR
DAYTIME CHANCES MON AND TUE. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED IN THE 07.00Z
EXTENDED RANGE MOS GUIDANCE.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS LOWER-MID 90S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS...MID 60S-NEAR 70 OVER THE INTERIOR TO LOWER-MID 70S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10
&&
.AVIATION [07.12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE LEAVING SOME
BRIEF LOW CEILINGS. OTHERWISE VFR TODAY WITH A FEW VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR NEAR ANY SHOWER THAT
MANAGES TO DEVELOP. GENERALLY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN
THE USUAL PLACES. /11
&&
.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE MARINE FORECAST AREA WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...A BIT MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT NEAR SHORE IN THE AFTERNOONS, A WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA LATE WEEK BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO MOVE OVER THE MARINE AREA...THIS WILL
TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THE END OF THE WEEK.
WAVE HEIGHTS STARTING OUT 1 TO 3 FEET WILL TEND TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A BIT
HIGHER...THEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
AFTERNOONS. /11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LATEST GRIDDED HUMIDITY FIELDS IN THE NEAR TERM
SHOWS LOWEST HUMIDITIES IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES TODAY AND WED ->
35-40% RANGE WITH 45-55% ON AVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME
DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE TO GOOD. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 92 72 92 71 / 05 10 20 05
PENSACOLA 91 75 91 75 / 05 10 20 10
DESTIN 89 76 89 76 / 05 10 20 10
EVERGREEN 93 67 94 66 / 05 10 10 05
WAYNESBORO 93 67 95 69 / 10 10 10 05
CAMDEN 94 67 95 67 / 05 10 10 05
CRESTVIEW 93 67 93 67 / 05 10 20 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 071713
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.UPDATE...AFTER FURTHER REVIEW...IT APPEARS THERE IS A WEAK MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA STATE LINE.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS AREA IS ALSO IN AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT ZONE.
WILL ADD THE MENTION SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. IT
APPEARS THAT THE INSTABILITY WILL NOT GO LOW ENOUGH FOR THE WET
MICROBURST POTENTIAL TO BECOME A PROBLEM. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
IF THE CAPE VALUES CAN EXCEED 1500.
75
&&
.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES ON THE MAP THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE HAS MADE LANDFALL IN SOUTH TEXAS...A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO
OKLAHOMA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS BARELY IDENTIFIABLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF THE 12Z RAOB WAS 1.23
INCHES AT BMX...1.73 AT JAN...AND 1.05 AT FFC. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP THE MEAN MOISTURE AXIS WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THIS MOISTURE AXIS APPROACHING NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. 16Z
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...SOME 5 DEGREES
ABOVE YESTERDAY MORNINGS READINGS. WILL INCREASE HIGHS A DEGREE OR
SO IN A FEW PLACES...BUT MAINLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES AREA WIDE. OVERALL
FORECAST CHANGES ARE MINIMAL...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
75/LINHARES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010/.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WARM FRONT IS PRODUCING A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND MID 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. STRONGER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALSO
PRODUCING ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN RIDGES AND
VALLEYS. DESPITE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND 1-1.5 INCHES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT INTO NORTH
ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DOES
NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME DUE TO WEAK LIFT ALONG FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA AND NO UPPER LEVEL FORCING...RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL ON
THURSDAY. REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST OF ALABAMA AS IT GETS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS STATES
AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES ON
FRIDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER GULF COAST STATES AND KEEP A
LID ON DIURNAL CONVECTION. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS STATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT INTO
ALABAMA BY SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF IS
FAIRLY FLAT AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH LIFT AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AND RAIN CHANCES KEPT ON THE LOW END OF
THE SPECTRUM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
58
&&
.AVIATION...12 TAF DISCUSSION.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP AREA AIRPORTS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW CIRRUS.
NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.
88
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
58/88
000
FXUS64 KBMX 071622
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1121 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.UPDATE...DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES ON THE MAP THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE HAS MADE LANDFALL IN SOUTH TEXAS...A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO
OKLAHOMA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS BARELY IDENTIFIABLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF THE 12Z RAOB WAS 1.23
INCHES AT BMX...1.73 AT JAN...AND 1.05 AT FFC. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP THE MEAN MOISTURE AXIS WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THIS MOISTURE AXIS APPROACHING NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. 16Z
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...SOME 5 DEGREES
ABOVE YESTERDAY MORNINGS READINGS. WILL INCREASE HIGHS A DEGREE OR
SO IN A FEW PLACES...BUT MAINLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES AREA WIDE. OVERALL
FORECAST CHANGES ARE MINIMAL...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
75/LINHARES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010/.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WARM FRONT IS PRODUCING A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND MID 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. STRONGER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALSO
PRODUCING ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN RIDGES AND
VALLEYS. DESPITE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND 1-1.5 INCHES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT INTO NORTH
ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DOES
NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME DUE TO WEAK LIFT ALONG FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA AND NO UPPER LEVEL FORCING...RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL ON
THURSDAY. REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST OF ALABAMA AS IT GETS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS STATES
AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES ON
FRIDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER GULF COAST STATES AND KEEP A
LID ON DIURNAL CONVECTION. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS STATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT INTO
ALABAMA BY SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF IS
FAIRLY FLAT AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH LIFT AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AND RAIN CHANCES KEPT ON THE LOW END OF
THE SPECTRUM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
58
&&
.AVIATION...12 TAF DISCUSSION.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP AREA AIRPORTS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW CIRRUS.
NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.
88
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
58/88
000
FXUS64 KHUN 071531
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1031 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS AND POP/WX
GRIDS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO T.S. HERMINE COMING ASHORE
IN SOUTHERN TEXAS. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO OKLAHOMA.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND BY LATE AFTERNOON...
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME NORTHWEST
ALABAMA AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH MEANDERS SOUTHWARD.
POPS WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY OUT WEST TODAY...AND THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST. OTHER THAN TWEAKING
AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR SO OUT WEST...NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE.
UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION.../FROM 12Z TAFS/...CDFNT NOW ACROSS CENTRAL MO WITH TS
HERMINE OVER EXTREME SRN TX. CIRCULATION ARND HERMINE WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS CWA WHILE THE CDFNT WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE
LIFT FOR SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC
THAT SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD POP UP OVER NW AL THIS AFTN BUT
FOR NOW THINK THAT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE TOO LIMITED. TIME
SECTIONS/MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REALLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MRNG. WILL
INCLUDE SHRA AT KMSL BEGINNING AT 08Z TONIGHT AND 10Z FOR KHSV.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010/
DISCUSSION...STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TO THE TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO IMPACT WX CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR ALSO CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
MOVE NWD TOWARD THE CNTRL TN VALLEY...WITH DEW PTS FROM THE MID 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL MS/AL. A WEAK RIDGE PATTERN
ALOFT OVER THE LOWER SE REGION IS ALSO BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
WEAKENING...AS AN UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS STATES BEGINS
TO MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING EWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO APPROACH
THE AREA AS WELL INTO THE MORNING HRS WED. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S RANGE. THE LATEST MODEL SUITES DO
NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY QPF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF
OF NRN AL LATER TODAY...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE/SFC CONVERGENCE
FOCUSED MORE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STALLING INVOF THE AREA ON WED...WITH ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE MORNING
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BUILDING SWD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS WITH
DRIER AIR IN TOW. THIS PATTERN IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING EWD INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS STARTING THU AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL AT LEAST
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THU AND FRI WITH
SOME MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE BETWEEN H85 AND H7...COUPLED WITH
THE NORMAL EFFECTS OF AFTERNOON HEATING. OVERALL TEMPS HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND PERIOD LOOK TO RUN APPROX 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ON SAT AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. ANY COOLER/DRIER AIR THOUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...12
AVIATION...007
PREV DISCUSSION...09
000
FXUS64 KBMX 071140
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
640 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WARM FRONT IS PRODUCING A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND MID 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. STRONGER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALSO
PRODUCING ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN RIDGES AND
VALLEYS. DESPITE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND 1-1.5 INCHES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT INTO NORTH
ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DOES
NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME DUE TO WEAK LIFT ALONG FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA AND NO UPPER LEVEL FORCING...RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL ON
THURSDAY. REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST OF ALABAMA AS IT GETS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS STATES
AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES ON
FRIDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER GULF COAST STATES AND KEEP A
LID ON DIURNAL CONVECTION. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS STATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT INTO
ALABAMA BY SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF IS
FAIRLY FLAT AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH LIFT AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AND RAIN CHANCES KEPT ON THE LOW END OF
THE SPECTRUM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...12 TAF DISCUSSION.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP AREA AIRPORTS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW CIRRUS.
NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
58/88
000
FXUS64 KMOB 071127 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
628 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 07/12Z...A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE LEAVING SOME BRIEF LOW
CEILINGS IN A FEW SPOTS...CIGS AOB 1500 FEET. OTHERWISE VFR TODAY
WITH A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
NEAR ANY SHOWER THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP. GENERALLY CLEAR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE USUAL PLACES. /11
******************************PREVIOUS*****************************
.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SHOULD BE GENERALLY
RAIN FREE...WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH IS TOWARD THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
AND THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD FROM
THE TROPICAL STORM MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MIGHT BE A FEW
BRIEF POPUP SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST LIKE YESTERDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH OF
A CHANCE TO JUSTIFY PUTTING IN FORECAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 90S AGAIN WITH THE UPPER HIGH REMAINING PARKED OVER
THE AREA. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ALSO COME UP A FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY DOWNBURST POTENTIAL IS MODERATE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...LOW ELSEWHERE. /11
&&
.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...WHILE
A WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN/WIND FLOW IS FORECAST.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RECOVER AND CONSIDERING WEAK
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE FOR WEAK LIFT...FORECASTERS HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DAYTIME TSTMS IN THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE WEEKEND THEN LOWERING HEIGHTS=>TROFFING
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE EAST WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO RIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE DIFFLUENT
NORTHWEST...HIGH LEVEL FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE EAST COAST TROF
SUN-TUE. CONSIDERING THIS AND THE SURFACE FRONT PROVIDING A SURFACE
FOCUS FOR LIFT...SUGGESTS A NEED FOR PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
TO BE UP A CATEGORY LATER IN THE WEEKEND...THEN MAINTAINING SIMILAR
DAYTIME CHANCES MON AND TUE. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED IN THE 07.00Z
EXTENDED RANGE MOS GUIDANCE.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS LOWER-MID 90S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS...MID 60S-NEAR 70 OVER THE INTERIOR TO LOWER-MID 70S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10
&&
.AVIATION [07.12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE LEAVING SOME
BRIEF LOW CEILINGS. OTHERWISE VFR TODAY WITH A FEW VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR NEAR ANY SHOWER THAT
MANAGES TO DEVELOP. GENERALLY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN
THE USUAL PLACES. /11
&&
.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE MARINE FORECAST AREA WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...A BIT MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT NEAR SHORE IN THE AFTERNOONS, A WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA LATE WEEK BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO MOVE OVER THE MARINE AREA...THIS WILL
TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THE END OF THE WEEK.
WAVE HEIGHTS STARTING OUT 1 TO 3 FEET WILL TEND TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A BIT
HIGHER...THEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
AFTERNOONS. /11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LATEST GRIDDED HUMIDITY FIELDS IN THE NEAR TERM
SHOWS LOWEST HUMIDITIES IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES TODAY AND WED ->
35-40% RANGE WITH 45-55% ON AVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME
DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE TO GOOD. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 92 72 92 71 / 05 10 20 05
PENSACOLA 91 75 91 75 / 05 10 20 10
DESTIN 89 76 89 76 / 05 10 20 10
EVERGREEN 93 67 94 66 / 05 10 10 05
WAYNESBORO 93 67 95 69 / 10 10 10 05
CAMDEN 94 67 95 67 / 05 10 10 05
CRESTVIEW 93 67 93 67 / 05 10 20 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 071114
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
614 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS
&&
.AVIATION...CDFNT NOW ACROSS CENTRAL MO WITH TS HERMINE OVER
EXTREME SRN TX. CIRCULATION ARND HERMINE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS CWA WHILE THE CDFNT WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE LIFT FOR SOME SCT
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA COULD POP UP OVER NW AL THIS AFTN BUT FOR NOW THINK THAT
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE TOO LIMITED. TIME SECTIONS/MODEL SOUNDINGS
ALL SHOW THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MRNG. WILL INCLUDE SHRA AT KMSL BEGINNING AT
08Z TONIGHT AND 10Z FOR KHSV.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010/
DISCUSSION...STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TO THE TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO IMPACT WX CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR ALSO CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
MOVE NWD TOWARD THE CNTRL TN VALLEY...WITH DEW PTS FROM THE MID 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL MS/AL. A WEAK RIDGE PATTERN
ALOFT OVER THE LOWER SE REGION IS ALSO BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
WEAKENING...AS AN UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS STATES BEGINS
TO MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING EWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO APPROACH
THE AREA AS WELL INTO THE MORNING HRS WED. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S RANGE. THE LATEST MODEL SUITES DO
NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY QPF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF
OF NRN AL LATER TODAY...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE/SFC CONVERGENCE
FOCUSED MORE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STALLING INVOF THE AREA ON WED...WITH ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE MORNING
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BUILDING SWD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS WITH
DRIER AIR IN TOW. THIS PATTERN IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING EWD INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS STARTING THU AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL AT LEAST
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THU AND FRI WITH
SOME MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE BETWEEN H85 AND H7...COUPLED WITH
THE NORMAL EFFECTS OF AFTERNOON HEATING. OVERALL TEMPS HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND PERIOD LOOK TO RUN APPROX 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ON SAT AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. ANY COOLER/DRIER AIR THOUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
007
000
FXUS64 KBMX 070846
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
346 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WARM FRONT IS PRODUCING A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND MID 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. STRONGER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALSO
PRODUCING ABOUT A 10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN RIDGES AND
VALLEYS. DESPITE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND 1-1.5 INCHES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT INTO NORTH
ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION DOES
NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME DUE TO WEAK LIFT ALONG FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE AREA AND NO UPPER LEVEL FORCING...RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL ON
THURSDAY. REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST OF ALABAMA AS IT GETS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS STATES
AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES ON
FRIDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER GULF COAST STATES AND KEEP A
LID ON DIURNAL CONVECTION. A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS STATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT INTO
ALABAMA BY SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF IS
FAIRLY FLAT AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH LIFT AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AND RAIN CHANCES KEPT ON THE LOW END OF
THE SPECTRUM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART AT ALL SITES...EXCEPT FOR
SOME MVFR BR AT TCL POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PASSING IFR VIS. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
THERE WILL BE MORE IN WAY OF SCT CIRRUS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NO IMPACT TO TAF LOCATIONS.
NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.
16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 92 63 92 65 91 / 0 10 20 20 20
ANNISTON 92 63 94 67 92 / 0 10 20 20 20
BIRMINGHAM 93 68 93 70 93 / 0 10 20 20 20
TUSCALOOSA 94 67 95 67 95 / 0 10 10 10 20
CALERA 92 67 93 68 93 / 0 10 10 10 20
AUBURN 91 66 92 69 93 / 0 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 94 67 95 67 96 / 0 10 10 10 10
TROY 93 65 94 66 95 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 070828
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
328 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SHOULD BE GENERALLY
RAIN FREE...WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH IS TOWARD THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
AND THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD FROM
THE TROPICAL STORM MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MIGHT BE A FEW
BRIEF POPUP SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST LIKE YESTERDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH OF
A CHANCE TO JUSTIFY PUTTING IN FORECAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 90S AGAIN WITH THE UPPER HIGH REMAINING PARKED OVER
THE AREA. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ALSO COME UP A FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY DOWNBURST POTENTIAL IS MODERATE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...LOW ELSEWHERE. /11
&&
.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...WHILE
A WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN/WIND FLOW IS FORECAST.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RECOVER AND CONSIDERING
WEAK MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE FOR WEAK LIFT...FORECASTERS HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DAYTIME TSTMS IN THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OVER THE WEEKEND THEN LOWERING HEIGHTS=>TROFFING
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE EAST WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO RIDE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE DIFFLUENT
NORTHWEST...HIGH LEVEL FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE EAST COAST TROF
SUN-TUE. CONSIDERING THIS AND THE SURFACE FRONT PROVIDING A SURFACE
FOCUS FOR LIFT...SUGGESTS A NEED FOR PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
TO BE UP A CATEGORY LATER IN THE WEEKEND...THEN MAINTAINING SIMILAR
DAYTIME CHANCES MON AND TUE. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED IN THE 07.00Z
EXTENDED RANGE MOS GUIDANCE.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS LOWER-MID 90S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS...MID 60S-NEAR 70 OVER THE INTERIOR TO LOWER-MID 70S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10
&&
.AVIATION [07.12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE LEAVING SOME BRIEF LOW
CEILINGS. OTHERWISE VFR TODAY WITH A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR NEAR ANY SHOWER THAT MANAGES TO
DEVELOP. GENERALLY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE USUAL
PLACES. /11
&&
.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE MARINE FORECAST AREA WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...A BIT MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT NEAR SHORE IN THE AFTERNOONS, A WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA LATE WEEK BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO MOVE OVER THE MARINE AREA...THIS WILL
TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THE END OF THE WEEK.
WAVE HEIGHTS STARTING OUT 1 TO 3 FEET WILL TEND TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A BIT
HIGHER...THEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
AFTERNOONS. /11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LATEST GRIDDED HUMIDITY FIELDS IN THE NEAR TERM SHOWS LOWEST
HUMIDITIES IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES TODAY AND WED -> 35-40% RANGE WITH 45-55%
ON AVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AVERAGE TO GOOD. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 92 72 92 71 / 05 10 20 05
PENSACOLA 91 75 91 75 / 05 10 20 10
DESTIN 89 76 89 76 / 05 10 20 10
EVERGREEN 93 67 94 66 / 05 10 10 05
WAYNESBORO 93 67 95 69 / 10 10 10 05
CAMDEN 94 67 95 67 / 05 10 10 05
CRESTVIEW 93 67 93 67 / 05 10 20 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 070750
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
250 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.DISCUSSION...STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TO THE TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO IMPACT WX CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR ALSO CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
MOVE NWD TOWARD THE CNTRL TN VALLEY...WITH DEW PTS FROM THE MID 60S
TO THE LOWER 70S LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL MS/AL. A WEAK RIDGE PATTERN
ALOFT OVER THE LOWER SE REGION IS ALSO BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
WEAKENING...AS AN UPPER TROUGH OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS STATES BEGINS
TO MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING EWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO APPROACH
THE AREA AS WELL INTO THE MORNING HRS WED. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S RANGE. THE LATEST MODEL SUITES DO
NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY QPF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN HALF
OF NRN AL LATER TODAY...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE/SFC CONVERGENCE
FOCUSED MORE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STALLING INVOF THE AREA ON WED...WITH ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE MORNING
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BUILDING SWD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS WITH
DRIER AIR IN TOW. THIS PATTERN IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING EWD INTO MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS STARTING THU AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL AT LEAST
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THU AND FRI WITH
SOME MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE BETWEEN H85 AND H7...COUPLED WITH
THE NORMAL EFFECTS OF AFTERNOON HEATING. OVERALL TEMPS HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND PERIOD LOOK TO RUN APPROX 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ON SAT AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. ANY COOLER/DRIER AIR THOUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 94 68 91 68 90 / 10 20 30 20 20
SHOALS 93 68 91 67 91 / 10 20 40 20 20
VINEMONT 93 66 90 68 91 / 10 10 30 20 20
FAYETTEVILLE 91 65 90 66 89 / 10 20 30 20 20
ALBERTVILLE 93 68 90 68 89 / 10 10 30 20 20
FORT PAYNE 92 66 90 66 90 / 0 10 30 20 20
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
09
000
FXUS64 KHUN 070519
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z TUE MORNING. SCATTERED
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TCU/CB MAINLY WEST OF I-65. HAVE MAINTAINED
CB IN TAF FOR KMSL AFTER AFTER 07/20Z GIVEN SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /EVENING ISSUANCE/
RATHER MILD EARLY SEPT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S...AND LIGHT SE
WINDS. ALONG WITH THE NICE TEMPS...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST...AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE STATES
SLOWLY AMPLIFIES. THIS RIDGE WAS KEEPING THE EFFECTS OF A MORE
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WELL NORTH OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER TO OUR
SOUTH...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED WEST-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
MS/AL/GA. IT WAS NOTED MAINLY BY DEWPOINT DIFFERENCES...WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND. THIS MOISTURE SURGE WAS
NOTED VIA LATE VISIBLE SATELLITE VIEW FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING AND
ON THE FOG/LOW CLOUD VIEW.
GIVEN DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...ONE MORE NIGHT OF COOLER THAN
AVERAGE LOW TEMPS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL FROM THE DAY CREW. HAVE LOW
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS TO LOWER
60S IN URBAN AREA AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATED SPOTS. IF DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES QUICKER...LOWER 60S WITH MAY BE A MID 60S OR TWO
COULD BE REALIZED...ESPECIALLY OVER NW ALABAMA. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE
THE ON-GOING FORECASTS UNCHANGED.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
RSB
000
FXUS64 KBMX 070446
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
OUR BRIEF TEASER OF FALL WEATHER WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A MORE OF
A SUMMERTIME PATTERN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN. LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR MORE
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM HERMINE SHOULD
STAY WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. CURRENT
FORECASTS MOVE THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN AROUND THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. SO...WHILE
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING DUE TO A GENERAL INFLUX OF GULF AIR...
IT APPEARS WILL WILL NOT GET THE BENEFIT OF ANY ENHANCED MOISTURE
FROM HERMINE. THUS...POPS WILL NOT BE ANY HIGHER THAN A CLIMO-ISH
30 PERCENT CHANCE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART AT ALL SITES...EXCEPT FOR
SOME MVFR BR AT TCL POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF PASSING IFR VIS. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
THERE WILL BE MORE IN WAY OF SCT CIRRUS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT NO IMPACT TO TAF LOCATIONS.
NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.
16
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 070436 AAB
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010
.UPDATE...EVERYTHING CURRENTLY ON TRACK. A BIT TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT(CLOSER TO HERMINE) OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA IS
KEEPING A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE FA...WHILST THE REST OF THE
FA...WINDS HAVE SETTLED FOR THE NIGHT.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z ISSUANCE)GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THE BEGINNING OF
THE FORECAST. THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS FROM
THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FORMATION OF THE MORNING CU FIELD...THEN NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA FORMING
DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
QUARTER OF THE FA.
/16
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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